by Tom
When Polly and I first envisioned the vineyard, we recognized the opportunity to create a beautiful place that guests would want to visit, to linger, to converse, and to enjoy each other's company over a glass of wine. You can imagine then how difficult it has been to conclude that the pandemic prevents us from safely hosting indoor activities.
Since some indoor activity is permitted under the current state and local regulations, Regina urged me to share with you my thinking about why, in our case, we’ve decided to wait until COVID-19 subsides before hosting any indoor events. As many of you know, I am a physician by training, and my research for the past 28 years has focused on the consequences of health policy on the health and well-being of the population. Read on only if you are interested in a lengthy explanation.
I do not think there is a universally “right” answer to questions about reopening. Scientific understanding of the pandemic and the virus is rapidly evolving, so today’s solutions may not be tomorrow’s. Our decision depends on rates of community transmission, environmental factors such as humidity and ventilation, and the potential consequences, both individual and community, of infection, should it occur.
First, the possible consequences of exposing our club members to COVID-19 are significant. Members of the Dodon Wine Club fall roughly into two demographic categories. About half are at high risk, whether because of age or pre-existing medical conditions, of severe consequences if they become ill with COVID-19. Another large portion of the Club are parents of school-age children. While this group is at lower risk of complications, we do not want to contribute to a delay in schools reopening if a super-spreader occurred at Dodon.
Second, the risks for our team are also potentially serious. Our in-house production team, myself included, depends on their senses, especially smell and taste, to make wine. About half of those who become infected with COVID-19 lose these senses, a relatively minor inconvenience for most, but potentially devastating for wine professionals.
Third, ventilation in Dodon’s indoor tasting area is inadequate to mitigate transmission risk in an enclosed space, especially when exposure is likely to be prolonged and without face masks. To assess ventilation, we measured carbon dioxide levels during a mid-September blending session with six people in the large tasting room, with the fans on and the doors open. Within a few minutes, carbon dioxide levels rose from 415 ppm to 685 ppm, above the levels that are associated with reducing transmission of tuberculosis. Recent research demonstrates that these conditions may account for the majority of new cases of COVID-19.
Fourth, the higher the prevalence of COVID-19 in our community, the higher the risk of transmission at the winery. Public health experts have set a goal for community transmission of less than 10 newly identified cases per 100,000 population per day. As of this writing, (November 3, 2020) the United States is averaging 23 new cases per 100,000 per day, with North Dakota at 153, Wisconsin at 82, and Anne Arundel County at 13. Using the 10 new cases per 100,000 population threshold and some reasonable assumptions about asymptomatic spread, we can estimate the risk of encountering someone with transmissible COVID-19 indoors at the winery during open hours at about 5%. Read the text box if you enjoy math.
Fifth, we have alternatives. Our goal throughout the pandemic has been to keep our staff employed and healthy, to support our community, and to provide a safe respite for our guests. We will continue to host virtual tastings and outdoor reservations in a “pop-up” format when the weather allows. You may also continue to pick up wine at the winery and to have wine delivered to you at home or work. In addition to local delivery, we are now able to ship wine to 37 states.
And so, we have chosen to be patient and wait until schools are safely open until we host indoor activities. Our decision should in no way be taken as criticism of businesses in the community that have come to different conclusions. Their customers and staff may be at lower risk, face masks can be worn at their locations, and ventilation may be different from that at Dodon. We respect and support their decisions, but their decision would not be right for our operation.
We thank you for your patience and understanding. We look forward to gathering virtually or outdoors, and we are very grateful for your support during this time of uncertainty. Above all, we want to be part of a constructive solution that controls spread of a serious illness and allows our community to work, play, learn, and converse again.
As always, we are dancing with nature.
Risk of COVID-19 Transmission at the Winery Varies with Community Incidence
About half of all those who have COVID-19 are not identified, doubling the true incidence.
Identified cases (10/100,000)
+ Unidentified cases (10/100,00)
= Total new cases (20/100,000)
People who are identified with COVID-19 can pass on the virus for 3 days before symptom onset, when we assume they will isolate.
Identified cases (10/100,000)
x presymptomatic infectious days (3)
= Total presymptomatic people who can transmit COVID-19 (30/100,000)
Those with COVID-19 but not identified are infectious for about 10 days.
Unidentified cases (10/100,000)
x asymptomatic infectious days (10)
= Total asymptomatic people who can transmit COVID-19 (100/100,000)
When 10 new cases/100,000 population per day are identified, there are 130 people per 100,000 who can transmit COVID-19.
Presymptomatic infectious cases (30/100,000)
+ Asymptomatic infectious cases (100/100,000)
= Total infectious cases per day (130/100,000)
AND the risk of encountering someone with transmissible COVID-19 in the winery tasting area is about 5%
Infectious cases (130/100,000)
X number of people in the tasting room (40)
= Probability of one person with transmissible COVID-19 (0.052 = 5.2%)